2016 looking more ominous as PNG’s year of reckoning

By Busa Jeremiah Wenogo

Events in the last couple of weeks have understandably raised confusion, doubts, frustrations and anxiety among the general public in PNG. Once again the constitution of our country is being tested as a senior judge of the Supreme Court was charged by the Fraud Squad for judicial corruption while the country’s current Prime Minister is fighting allegations leveled against him for official corruption. The court’s decision to firstly dismiss the PM’s application to stay his arrest and then setting aside Damaru and Getua’s suspension by the Police Commissioner has already irritated the PM; to the extent where he has questioned the neutrality of the members of the Supreme Court bench while policemen loyal to him remain belligerent. These actions by the PM and his policemen may well be unprecedented in PNG’s history. Remember this is the PM that along with members of his cabinet sponsored the controversial Judicial Conduct Bill as soon as they came into power. Then soon after vowed to repeal the Act after much criticism both domestically and from abroad. Our judiciary so far has remained resilient since we gained our independence. In a democracy where at times the other two arms of our government have shown little resistance and independence; its often been described as the nation’s last hope and bastion against tyranny.

Economically, the nation is facing cash flow crisis as the government buckles down on its expenditure. 2016 started off with several government cheques being dishonored by the banks. Current restrictions imposed by BPNG on the nation’s foreign reserves are not supporting a burgeoning private sector’s import demands critical to our nation's economic health while the national budget is being supported largely through domestic borrowing. However, if the global commodity prices don’t improve quickly soon enough the government may be forced to seek loans from abroad. The US$300 million that the government is negotiating with IFC is already under scrutiny. Eventually all these borrowings could quickly dry up if the nation’s credit rating is further downgraded by the international credit rating agency (Standard & Poor); an indication of our nation’s inability to repay its debt obligation whilst meeting its policy priorities. Recent reports of manipulation of economic statistics by the government should not come as a surprise especially for a country that has a chronic disorder in collating, maintaining and dispersing on a timely basis reliable data for planning and policing making purposes. A government that thrives on “populist” policy is sure to take full advantage of this “inefficiency” to prop up its credibility and ability to prudentially manage the economy while driving its popular policies. This is very frightening for our country if the government is using these “unauthenticated” data to justify further borrowings. The cash flow crisis that our country is facing at present may well portray a situation where the market is trying to “correct itself”. As a result a lot of pain now awaits the government and the nation as it works to pull this country out from a deepening economic crisis. The golden period has come to an end and it will be a while before we experience a similar period. Right now we are entering a new (but familiar) phase in our nation’s development. This is a period where the government will need to once again put in place policy measures to regain, rebuild and restore our economy.   

Out on the streets simple Papua New Guineans remain ignorant carrying on their normal lives as if nothing is wrong. Even when news of the past week have raised alarm bells of the state of our union all seems to be quiet. In this unpredictable environment we can only assume and ponder “what would have been”. What if last week’s ethnic tension in Gordon Market that caused the PMV operators to go on city-wide strike was instead over the removal of key members of the fraud squad and the eventual temporary closure of the Fraud Squad Office? What if the series of student led strikes in session in couple of campuses throughout the country was to demand the government and the PM to come clean on the corruption saga that is before us?

No one can deny that an under-current is building up (or is already underway by the look of things on social media) that may soon force the government to consider the nation’s interest over personal glory. Sooner or later if the current crisis is not brought under control the rumblings will get louder and eventually invade the airwaves, the footpaths and streets. The 2001 UPNG led nationwide strike[1] against the privatization of SOEs is a reminder of the enormous power the people of this country possess to demand and eventually bring about change. Coincidentally, this student led strike was in response to the last structural reform initiated by the Mekere Led Government to stop the then hemorrhaging economy caused by Skate’s government’s disastrous management of our economy. Privatization of state owned entities was the central pillar of that IMF led structural reforms at that time. 

At where we are now it is easy to draw parallels with that nation’s piece of history. History as is very well known has a neck for repeating itself. Before all hell breaks loose commonsense should prevail otherwise insanity will run amok en masse. The events in the last couple of weeks may well herald the reckoning of our nation.          

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[1] https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2001/06/png-j29.html